Movies · resolved market
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 390m by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cf9a9cef318cfbba70d4edbc3ce778997157ac42278b28e46e62d904216d2dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0431…fcb4backed No | 1c | 4,033$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 16c | 1,943$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.64 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,324$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 666.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 532.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 2c | 519.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 5c | 486.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed No | 7c | 452.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…a835backed No | 3c | 382.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb648…ff32backed No | 11c | 377.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 6c | 354.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 22c | 323.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…ea4fbacked No | 16c | 322.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc5…e19abacked Yes | 78c | 257.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed No | 10c | 220.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 218.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…b155backed Yes | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 69c | 166.3$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…a3adbacked No | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 77c | 151$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 13c | 131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9f…141abacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…ff55backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 76c | 84.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked Yes | 73c | 35.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 390m by January 31?this page
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 390m and 395m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 395m and 400m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 400m by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.