Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cfec5f6aa332c8a58ce53dc6f8d2f11a7e4ca761295fb411d019675f48d386a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 565$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.64 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 64c | 496.54$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.42 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 491.02$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 40c | 322.54$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.47 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 69c | 290.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 40c | 235.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 233.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 63c | 180.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 23c | 172.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 51c | 152.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 69c | 147.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 39c | 96.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 89.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 31c | 73.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 67.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 62.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 70c | 56.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 54.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 51.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 45.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 29c | 44.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 42.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 41.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 38c | 39.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 52c | 38.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 48c | 38.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 46c | 35.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Yes | 71c | 30.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 50c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 75c | 27.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 27.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 59c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 25.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 59c | 25.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 49c | 25.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 69c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.