Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x314aae91c024237a411bb3afc8c0fc10958bc75686fbb2e31c1a198fe710a5e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 62c | 3,394$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 28c | 1,323$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.39 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 908.69$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 305.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 279.72$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 274.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 38c | 263.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 37c | 229$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 207.77$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 37c | 202$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 16c | 196.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 59c | 161$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 127$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 65c | 120.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 39c | 102$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 20c | 99.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 99.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 75c | 96.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 19c | 74.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 38c | 69.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 68.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 18c | 68.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 63.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff3b…9f3fbacked Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…aec1backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 45.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 38c | 44.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 28c | 43.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 41.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab4…aef5backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…e5d3backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 73c | 17.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 78c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.