Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d3d62266c52f47b051b24b154ed0baca81f5d906651bce62af8b95e78878fc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 345.88$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 39c | 243.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 242.17$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.41 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 241.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 31c | 199.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 38c | 192.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 42c | 155.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…bf21backed Yes | 39c | 149.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 138$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9c…e401backed No | 59c | 127.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 95.91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 92.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 88.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 57c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 72.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 65.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 55c | 63.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 37c | 56.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 50.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 53c | 39.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 53c | 39.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 38.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 54c | 34.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 51c | 31.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 43c | 30.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…7961backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd9…9591backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 57c | 27.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 26.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 56c | 25.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 44c | 25.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 24.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 23.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 50c | 20.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.