Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d60e42cf8cc12d6d3e5c3debdaa3e83ace9ec142bc992973068f013ae907d84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,156$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.41 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…b750backed Yes | 0c | 2,081$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…3cfcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,021$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…cb63backed Yes | 4c | 1,156$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,135$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf005…49b3backed Yes | 4c | 718.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked Yes | 4c | 665.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 6c | 444.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…73e7backed Yes | 3c | 428.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 16c | 278.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 5c | 271.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 186.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 8c | 174.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 114.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 35c | 89.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 37c | 88.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 88.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 85.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 73.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 29c | 67.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 60.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 33c | 60.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 58.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 43.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 70c | 40.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 39.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 63c | 33.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 30.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 38c | 28.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…417fbacked Yes | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 26.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 61c | 25.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 25.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 22.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 69c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…9291backed No | 53c | 19.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.