Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb958fa1e52b5ac12b8f922fa4aa7fa4f090d460ac16bb203f0add78ad75c3676
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 4,566$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,456.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…2b8ebacked No | 1c | 2,529$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,505$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.41 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 1,852$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,749$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.06 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 5c | 1,354$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.24 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 1,282$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.86 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 1c | 1,032$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 21c | 872.44$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.8 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 740.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.06 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed No | 16c | 700.88$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 43c | 674.6$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.75 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 43c | 587.69$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.16 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 36c | 586.44$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.07 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…95c8backed Yes | 63c | 585.15$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f64…452abacked No | 23c | 564.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 42c | 474.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…daefbacked No | 16c | 455.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 4c | 443.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 18c | 438.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…f56bbacked No | 28c | 368.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…3462backed No | 67c | 299.36$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 15c | 298.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0173…d05dbacked No | 29c | 292.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 26c | 274.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 27c | 238.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 236.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 6c | 235.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 25c | 225.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.26 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 7c | 217.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.67 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 15c | 207.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 205.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 188.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 27c | 186.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 8c | 186$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed No | 41c | 179.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 9c | 159.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.94 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x704a…f540backed Yes | 25c | 159.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +229.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 156.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 13c | 151.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 19c | 150.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 138.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 136.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 9c | 135.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 10c | 135$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.93 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed Yes | 38c | 128.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 120.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 109.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 20c | 108.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 28c | 107.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 39c | 103.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…f0bbbacked Yes | 12c | 100.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +190.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…eb9fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 97.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 89.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 15c | 89.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 60c | 83.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 24c | 82.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 25c | 81.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 78.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 16c | 76.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 74.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…3cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 71.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked Yes | 47c | 62.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 41c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 54.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f09…cccbbacked Yes | 49c | 42.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 40.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 38.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 36c | 36.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 35.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 73c | 34.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf005…49b3backed Yes | 37c | 33.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 34c | 31.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6b…498bbacked Yes | 40c | 30.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431f…dccfbacked Yes | 37c | 28.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 26.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 60c | 25.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 79c | 20.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.