Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1b0d1a969863b88bcc69eec2d3358beff9031ad123f749218928c8e56d3b55d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 1,187$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 2c | 1,094$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…45b3backed Yes | 5c | 1,023$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 4c | 841.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…325fbacked Yes | 20c | 819.76$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 9c | 784.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 634.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…daefbacked Yes | 7c | 572.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…dfd2backed Yes | 4c | 550.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a33…41f6backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 448.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 10c | 398.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cf…3e28backed No | 70c | 289.03$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…459cbacked Yes | 6c | 259.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 217.17$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 10c | 195.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 189.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 180.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 180.66$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 174.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 13c | 168.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 16c | 164.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 24c | 144.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 19c | 124.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 22c | 121.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 108.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 15c | 106.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…fd1abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 42c | 94.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 12c | 88.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 87.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 24c | 83.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 82.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 80.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 26c | 78.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 78.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 77.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…95c8backed No | 73c | 69.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 68.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f09…cccbbacked Yes | 24c | 61.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 60.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 58.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…f053backed No | 77c | 55.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 19c | 54.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 65c | 43.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…3462backed Yes | 56c | 39.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 28c | 36.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…417fbacked Yes | 44c | 34.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 80c | 31.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 44c | 28.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 23.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 68c | 22.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.