Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d721e9e1305c163c69004f59e15621128f6f3548d7072b0e2fec65570548690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 4,453$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.83 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 78c | 3,047$2,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.98 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Over | 52c | 781.25$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 69c | 679.09$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.09 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 21c | 497.81$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 68c | 467.38$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.56 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 417.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.23 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 77c | 201.92$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 67c | 197.01$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Over | 79c | 178.43$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Over | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…8360backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Under | 19c | 154.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…ec16backed Over | 65c | 111.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 60c | 104.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…dad4backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Under | 37c | 73.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 19c | 55.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…8780backed Over | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 22c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 36c | 50.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Under | 41c | 48.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Under | 35c | 45.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2492backed Over | 60c | 38.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Over | 50c | 36.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Under | 40c | 31.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Over | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.