Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51e06907cc5e891cf9e2d8fd3bcaf6e9a8a8808bcec84d5f72cea672d5e0a2e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under | 68c | 7,999$5,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 26c | 4,150$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.61 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 36c | 2,399$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 74c | 1,701$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.62 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 35c | 428.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 36c | 367$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 74c | 286.53$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Over | 36c | 222.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c83…8380backed Under | 70c | 190$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Over | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 182.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked Under | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 34c | 82.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…dea6backed Under | 65c | 36.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 34c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 67c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.