Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48f66430640b256f59839a0192949f9d29bb6d1d64b4ee76e59cb7359cdd6d1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 59c | 123,556$72,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,890.66 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 41c | 69,999$28,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,299.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 41c | 16,500$6,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,720 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 12,108$4,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,116.8 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 45c | 10,797$4,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,903.85 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 5,285$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,079.99 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 4,621$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,682.33 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 4,537$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,529.14 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 40c | 2,113$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.58 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 71c | 1,485$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.08 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…c607backed Over | 59c | 1,449$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 47c | 1,225$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 58c | 1,203$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.95 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8f…c146backed Over | 58c | 820.6$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Over | 51c | 800$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Over | 28c | 800$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Over | 35c | 666$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…1ef9backed Over | 49c | 538.08$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Under | 58c | 529.83$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 57c | 482.46$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…1c7dbacked Under | 45c | 466.67$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 58c | 432.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 41c | 427$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.93 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…778dbacked Over | 57c | 401.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 308.05$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.77 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Under | 42c | 304.76$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.76 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…6232backed Over | 32c | 299.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 43c | 296.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 57c | 294.74$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 292.7$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 59c | 193.22$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 29c | 177.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 59c | 161.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…ec16backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Over | 52c | 116.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 58c | 109$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Under | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 40c | 82.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked Under | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ddb5backed Over | 43c | 76.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…e56bbacked Over | 59c | 76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Under | 46c | 67.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 55c | 59.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Under | 46c | 57.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Under | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…6e6ebacked Under | 44c | 53.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked Under | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Under | 44c | 38.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…6834backed Over | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 36c | 32.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 36c | 31.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ba…d310backed Under | 75c | 31.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…7d02backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Over | 45c | 27.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 27.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 57c | 22.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…8696backed Under | 63c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.