Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lazio beat Porto?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d7b36b3f5d765ffc763608f95b577a854d09540f33c409a41373ce52e4b355c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fde…ed39backed Yes | 41c | 2,452$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9273…fcf8backed Yes | 41c | 1,221$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 61c | 1,100$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Yes | 39c | 1,100$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 59c | 782.5$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.68 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 54c | 745.71$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.36 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 41c | 614.44$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.52 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 50c | 505$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba48…6d5fbacked Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked No | 58c | 259.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 54c | 223.7$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 59c | 153.46$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 46c | 143.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 69c | 133.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a6…9347backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf078…889abacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 58c | 118.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…025fbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 60c | 93.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa635…918dbacked Yes | 41c | 92.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…15eebacked Yes | 42c | 86.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 65c | 78.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed No | 33c | 60.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 57c | 57.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a7…c9debacked Yes | 41c | 50.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…e210backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a2…5e22backed Yes | 41c | 48.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes | 42c | 45.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 58c | 45.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f64…dd4cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…5061backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f54…68e6backed Yes | 49c | 40.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…a1e0backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…a8edbacked Yes | 42c | 36.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 58c | 33.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5119…a581backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b1…9eadbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio beat Porto?this page
- Will Porto beat Lazio?No won
- Will the match between Lazio and Porto end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.