Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbc1af52e6b03cbe7fba3ea501c4b5d7b3b36c7fb3f2a8b003e12a609d46e2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,217$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.49 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 598.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 542.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 8c | 374.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 347.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 10c | 275.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 11c | 263.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 262.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 246.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 25c | 230.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 207.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 13c | 170.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…9372backed Yes | 8c | 165.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…1df6backed Yes | 12c | 159.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 12c | 158.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 146.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 145.67$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 13c | 140.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 117.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 20c | 112.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 107.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 23c | 107.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 11c | 97.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 16c | 83.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 79c | 76.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 77c | 72.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 71.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 70.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 21c | 69.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 63.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 23c | 60.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 77c | 51.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 80c | 49.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…69e6backed No | 80c | 45.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 42.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…3a4ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 37.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 37.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 77c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.