TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,469 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes3c5,616$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19415027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes30c1,481$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.6628324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No64c1,117$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.822,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed No53c718.65$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.175349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c610.35$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes19c564.82$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.642,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes21c548.88$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.058,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c539$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.055,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes32c381.66$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No71c371.42$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.663,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes33c362.5$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2531936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No75c329.98$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.791,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed Yes31c320.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes35c314.07$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6820327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c300.53$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.182,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8755954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c276.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.212,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No70c259$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.72,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes27c257.53$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes22c248.33$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.141845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked No76c246.15$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.983441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes26c240.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6635429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes26c239.26$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.916,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes49c206.05$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.761,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4421236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No56c199.13$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.284,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes36c195.58$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2342849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes40c193.02$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7910463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes33c180.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c173.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No71c172$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c148.71$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.439,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed Yes33c141.79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.48444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No63c141.53$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.913,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes24c129.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5153925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No53c126.63$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.351,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No77c125.79$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7428244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No75c117$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.251,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No65c114.41$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5824262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes45c110.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes17c107.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No77c100.56$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4222550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes28c98.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.678641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No72c97.92$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8216550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No65c95.31$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0386847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92e3…ab49backed No66c93.46$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.717138%27 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x846b…63b6backed No66c92.14$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.395343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed No74c92.07$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3212853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes31c89.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.232725.9%7 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-63.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes26c80.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3334922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes33c78.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x84c2…c908backed Yes20c76.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.395724.6%14 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No67c76$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.994,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No64c75.68$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.461,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.814,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x617a…8c79backed No80c72.9$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.584360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes41c68.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.48650%43 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes27c68.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No68c67.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.71,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c65.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.849,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes21c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6513430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c65$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.95,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No64c63.81$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.081,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c62$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.863,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebed…04c2backed Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.45939%23 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed No63c59.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.212941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes42c57.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2624066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No54c57.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.284,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes44c57.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No72c57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0736057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes35c56.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes41c55.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.899960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No75c51.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.942,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked Yes39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4240461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.543959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.558152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee88…3bd7backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.540132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No65c49.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes28c49.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes24c49.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.174,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05ba…ca40backed No71c49.46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.342250%11 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes37c49.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.012,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed No61c48.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8415660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1704…b0e1backed No69c48.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.942272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick64cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No72c48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.632,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes46c47.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.622,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes31c47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes40c46.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9114645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes45c46.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No77c46.11$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6115369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes23c45.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.563,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20c0…22b4backed Yes34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes31c44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8212052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.