TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Josh Hart: Points O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,227 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x373a…f4c1backed No62c1,400$868 inLost-$86890863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc948…7315backed Yes36c640$229 inWon+$410.91172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+55%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No71c427.36$303 inLost-$303.421,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3750…0f3bbacked Yes37c304.63$112 inWon+$192.69650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Yes39c281.65$111 inWon+$170.793432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21b0…8da1backed Yes40c261$104 inWon+$156.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef4e…a79abacked Yes40c175.64$70 inWon+$105.643844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfab0…e0f5backed Yes34c172.86$59 inWon+$113.398658.1%50 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4729…8cfdbacked Yes29c172.6$50 inWon+$122.65139.2%20 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed No61c132$81 inLost-$80.739267.4%62 W · 30 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No66c103.24$68 inLost-$68.1425840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No63c94.93$59 inLost-$59.434,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85a7…d9f3backed Yes29c86.65$25 inWon+$61.6513345.9%61 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No65c85$55 inLost-$55.2522774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa7ea…4847backed Yes29c68.97$20 inWon+$48.971040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89fa…6ab0backed Yes29c62.07$18 inWon+$44.071421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No58c51$30 inLost-$29.5865630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes42c51$21 inWon+$29.5827840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9450…d9e6backed Yes35c50.8$18 inWon+$33.021546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No65c50$33 inLost-$32.595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9d…8498backed No65c50$32 inLost-$32.55648.2%27 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe07f…08d6backed Yes40c25$10 inWon+$152634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No72c23.7$17 inLost-$17.0683158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.