TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,304

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,304 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3227…5df7backed Over46c596.04$274 inWon+$321.861250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over47c385.21$179 inWon+$206.062,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under71c364.24$259 inLost-$258.563,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e1…d473backed Under54c304.87$165 inLost-$164.631533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee0…bf55backed Under54c291.17$157 inLost-$157.231145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Over31c232.62$72 inWon+$160.525840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under44c150.01$66 inLost-$65.531,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…ed19backed Under55c139.33$77 inLost-$76.631346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over55c132.74$73 inWon+$59.892,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over49c120.55$59 inWon+$61.481,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Under13c80.97$10 inLost-$10.495225%13 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under65c53.25$34 inLost-$34.458,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Under65c50$33 inLost-$32.527747.7%132 W · 145 L-20.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef4a…0314backed Over45c47.57$21 inWon+$26.161533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18ff…e90ebacked Over45c47.08$21 inWon+$25.89944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc87d…6f31backed Over45c44.54$20 inWon+$24.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Under55c40$22 inLost-$2237253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under56c40$22 inLost-$22.488057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over44c40$18 inWon+$22.445445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c37.88$19 inLost-$18.619,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd745…223abacked Under48c33.5$16 inLost-$16.081450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe825…39b7backed Under43c30.75$13 inLost-$13.222927.6%8 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-40%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Under71c19$13 inLost-$13.4939055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.