South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e31ca2d1f14b1bbc0f0fcaf5dff2e34c1221a7866f30cd861211ed3afad2adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67bf…f983backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 76c | 5,928$4,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.84 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 36c | 5,759$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.19 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed No | 10c | 4,510$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.82 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked No | 9c | 3,556$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 2c | 2,434$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 64c | 2,323$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.62 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 40c | 1,598$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.29 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed No | 5c | 1,216$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 4c | 1,213$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 60c | 956$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.4 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 40c | 924.74$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.02 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 61c | 897.39$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.4 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed No | 3c | 815.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 37c | 782.55$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.94 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 2c | 578.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 395.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Yes | 60c | 359.64$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked Yes | 77c | 338.74$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 41c | 295.01$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Yes | 59c | 271.63$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.37 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 78c | 257.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 40c | 253.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 14c | 232.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 62c | 232$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 18c | 214.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…b006backed No | 38c | 167.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…acc4backed No | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…3e4dbacked No | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 58c | 99.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 36c | 98.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 60c | 93.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked No | 23c | 87.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 75c | 80.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Yes | 61c | 79.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 78c | 68.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…9488backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fa…9c2cbacked No | 39c | 62.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked No | 39c | 62.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed No | 46c | 61.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Yes | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 62c | 57.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…5478backed No | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 75c | 52.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 40c | 51.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 41c | 51.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 68c | 46.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed No | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 70c | 45.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa522…2c26backed No | 36c | 43.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 58c | 42.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 72c | 38.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 39c | 37.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…85adbacked Yes | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…9cd7backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Yes | 63c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d5…ab3ebacked No | 41c | 29.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…8cdebacked Yes | 59c | 27.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…9591backed Yes | 59c | 25.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Yes | 58c | 25.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5a…724cbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 145 | 63.4%92 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e9…4709backed Yes | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…b81dbacked Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 65c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…e4d0backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…0a3dbacked Yes | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.