Earnings · resolved market
Will Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e37c15513238520e046a4e3b11df38b2b406d3d94f9e18ff79b9a0bafe4754c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 34c | 908.22$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.15 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 62c | 873.52$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.3 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 52c | 401$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.02 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 40c | 399.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba51…ff35backed No | 68c | 330$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 35c | 286.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde50…abfabacked Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 42c | 165.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed No | 61c | 164.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 157.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…1b00backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 47c | 119.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 26c | 87.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 25c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed No | 66c | 71.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 68.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…36d5backed No | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…2b66backed Yes | 43c | 55.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 74c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 64c | 46.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 76c | 33.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 58c | 22.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4c…b014backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.