Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e41d279ab064e5bcd17f5f99fce5f63f2c7eecf193da55aad5eb56f44ebc26f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 37c | 722.93$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.22 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 32c | 508.74$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 65c | 441.66$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.54 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 69c | 436.97$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.97 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 392.51$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 18c | 392.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 285.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 18c | 243.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 42c | 238.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 70c | 205.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 184.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 163.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 157.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 139.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 71c | 139.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 56c | 128.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 43c | 95.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 92.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 63c | 87.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 61c | 87.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 57c | 86.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…fbe4backed Yes | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 31c | 75.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 66.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 44c | 52.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 42c | 51.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 32c | 47.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 62c | 47.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 43.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 31c | 42.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 69c | 41.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 40.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 39.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 75c | 36.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 70c | 34.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 32c | 34.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 41c | 33.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 58c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 45c | 32.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 35c | 31.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 69c | 30.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 69c | 30.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 29.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 29.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…16e6backed No | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 44c | 26.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 25.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 69c | 25.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 46c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 56c | 22.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 63c | 21.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 71c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 67c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 63c | 16.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.