Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e501fbe766eb774510e15d80354c492857ee915f8314b3912dfb413505c9b47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 28c | 428.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 282.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 21c | 269.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 30c | 211.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 29c | 201.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 77c | 198.85$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 186$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 14c | 144.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 129.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 127.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 117.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 72c | 104.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 72.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 72.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 76c | 71.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 71.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 69.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 62.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 74c | 61.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 26c | 60.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 46.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 41.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 73c | 41.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 28c | 39.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 75c | 37.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…4681backed No | 74c | 37.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 36.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 35.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…3606backed Yes | 31c | 35.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 76c | 26.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 23.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 73c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…8588backed No | 77c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 72c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…e242backed No | 73c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…9aa1backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 68cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.