Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad151f68057e3e9f4a71227972e8712092cebcc32c35d6660c534b6359b7112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 75c | 607.92$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 65c | 315.98$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 67c | 266.24$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 27c | 204.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 199.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 65c | 190.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 62c | 184.69$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 63c | 179.54$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 33c | 175.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 28c | 163.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 59c | 162.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 74c | 162$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 32c | 143.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 123.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 120.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 117.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…15b7backed Yes | 63c | 105.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…8588backed Yes | 72c | 101.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 57c | 99.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 85.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 65c | 84.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 79.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 67c | 70.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 55c | 65.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked No | 39c | 63.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 31c | 61.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 58c | 57.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…bb75backed No | 35c | 57.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 32c | 54.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 25c | 53.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 67c | 52.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 39c | 50.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 50.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…ec25backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 57c | 49.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed No | 36c | 47.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 36c | 46.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 54c | 46.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 33c | 45.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…a2e1backed Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…e577backed Yes | 67c | 44.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 67c | 44.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 28c | 44.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…86afbacked Yes | 58c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…3546backed Yes | 69c | 43.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 62c | 43.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…3606backed Yes | 64c | 37.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 27c | 37.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 36.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 50c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 36c | 36.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 37c | 34.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 36c | 32.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 63c | 31.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 39c | 28.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 67c | 27.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 72c | 27.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 48c | 27.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…e242backed No | 43c | 26.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f74…dd5abacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…768cbacked Yes | 69c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed Yes | 61c | 20.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked Yes | 70c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…717dbacked Yes | 66c | 19.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.