Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e690de93d994d3e74f2cb80e950870d3a9c37f02279cef6bd43034dd3953126
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 485.4$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.19$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 290.38$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 25c | 283.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 50c | 241.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 46c | 238.01$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.68 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 213.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 41c | 204.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.81 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 51c | 202.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 53c | 186.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 46c | 176.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 173.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 77c | 153.83$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 46c | 146.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…04f4backed Yes | 58c | 117.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 44c | 107.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 54c | 106.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 39c | 96.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 93.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 37c | 88.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 44c | 85.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 70.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 69.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 55c | 68.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 67.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 43c | 65.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 40c | 65.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 63.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 53c | 57.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 59c | 53.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 57c | 49.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 74c | 48.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf721…2c26backed Yes | 45c | 43.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed No | 49c | 42.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 39c | 42.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 51c | 40.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 47c | 40.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 63c | 39.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x90e8…4175backed Yes | 44c | 39.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 36c | 38.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 36.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 62c | 35.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2864…ea34backed No | 59c | 35.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 62c | 34.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 33.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 43c | 33.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 31c | 33.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 52c | 32.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 60c | 32.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 28.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 52c | 27.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 53c | 27.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…f73bbacked Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 24.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 45c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 61c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…5c51backed No | 60c | 21.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 55c | 20.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 52c | 20.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 62c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 18.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 78c | 15.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.