Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e3d6bfd6e3873ab3e1d9f15422db33810c9891db23704f649ef562ff1ce18c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 1c | 917.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 27c | 726.42$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.66 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 456.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 362.57$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 58c | 316.23$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 295.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.18$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 77c | 244.75$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 221.71$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 29c | 212.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…4511backed Yes | 29c | 177.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 176.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…dd7fbacked Yes | 28c | 176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 71c | 168.12$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 51c | 167.77$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 23c | 163.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked Yes | 79c | 157$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.33 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 65c | 154.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 57c | 150.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 27c | 144.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 52c | 122.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 30c | 121.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 115.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…04f4backed Yes | 26c | 115.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 40c | 115.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 65c | 114.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 46c | 111.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 110.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 93.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 35c | 88.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 47c | 85.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 22c | 82.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 37c | 79.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 61c | 76.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 73.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 56c | 67.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 65.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 47c | 63.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…a948backed Yes | 32c | 62.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 59.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 30c | 59.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 50c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 28c | 55.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 72c | 50.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 54c | 49.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 66c | 47.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 54c | 40.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 57c | 39.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 31c | 36.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed Yes | 38c | 35.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…bb07backed Yes | 55c | 35.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed No | 64c | 29.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…befabacked Yes | 79c | 28.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 28.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 28.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 27.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 54c | 26.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930f…d96fbacked Yes | 58c | 22.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 66c | 17.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.