Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e6cd158a63426eb1e9bc936f301f7fd03041ad53fb1e9578d8db39f2eb5b80c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 32,684$6,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,703.27 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 79c | 28,014$22,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,882.93 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Under | 1c | 6,198$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 14c | 4,035$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.36 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 12c | 2,318$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.16 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Under | 19c | 1,715$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.21 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 79c | 1,424$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.09 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 2c | 999.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…7736backed Under | 12c | 800.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Over | 80c | 649.24$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 17c | 584.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 17c | 545$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 23c | 401.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 17c | 357.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 5c | 326.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Under | 21c | 313.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over | 73c | 276.19$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…6c65backed Under | 15c | 232.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 11c | 204.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 26c | 197.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 17c | 154.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 77c | 149.83$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 12c | 120.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 80c | 109$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 17c | 90.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 78c | 86.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 16c | 82.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 16c | 68.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 76c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 26c | 46.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed Over | 80c | 27.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 72c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.