Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0004807d7a042758e4d03de5b93808f11818ab8a44d68205e9dc2b35e8d0915a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester City FCof Manchester City FC, Liverpool FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11be…7712backed Liverpool FC | 70c | 2,870$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City FC | 49c | 2,046$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Manchester City FC | 32c | 1,268$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.31 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Liverpool FC | 69c | 1,119$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Manchester City FC | 23c | 1,046$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.05 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Liverpool FC | 20c | 958.97$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.09 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Liverpool FC | 68c | 947.31$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.26 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Manchester City FC | 31c | 917$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.73 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Liverpool FC | 11c | 802.91$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Liverpool FC | 75c | 785.66$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.32 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 603.68$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.34 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…6cc0backed Manchester City FC | 70c | 564.79$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Liverpool FC | 18c | 440.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Manchester City FC | 32c | 437.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 378 | 40.5%153 W · 225 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…43c5backed Liverpool FC | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Liverpool FC | 7c | 338.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Manchester City FC | 59c | 335.52$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.88 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Liverpool FC | 68c | 279.72$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Liverpool FC | 68c | 256.9$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.69 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Manchester City FC | 30c | 255.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.23 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Manchester City FC | 30c | 248.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.01 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Manchester City FC | 30c | 241.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.82 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Manchester City FC | 31c | 209.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ab…6b01backed Manchester City FC | 39c | 196.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…f891backed Liverpool FC | 69c | 177.33$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Liverpool FC | 63c | 159.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Liverpool FC | 69c | 124$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…2eb8backed Manchester City FC | 31c | 114.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Manchester City FC | 27c | 110.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Manchester City FC | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…5159backed Manchester City FC | 31c | 107.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Liverpool FC | 77c | 106.89$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Liverpool FC | 72c | 99.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Manchester City FC | 41c | 93.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Manchester City FC | 27c | 93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Liverpool FC | 71c | 92.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Liverpool FC | 72c | 91.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Liverpool FC | 72c | 90.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Liverpool FC | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Manchester City FC | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…06c8backed Manchester City FC | 33c | 76.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 75.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Liverpool FC | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Liverpool FC | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 67.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Manchester City FC | 45c | 63.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Manchester City FC | 40c | 61.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Manchester City FC | 33c | 61.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Liverpool FC | 77c | 53.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Manchester City FC | 40c | 53.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Manchester City FC | 32c | 45.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Liverpool FC | 68c | 42.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Liverpool FC | 76c | 39.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Manchester City FC | 41c | 36.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Manchester City FC | 32c | 32.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6185…6b22backed Liverpool FC | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Liverpool FC | 76c | 27.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Liverpool FC | 79c | 24.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa6…e929backed Liverpool FC | 70c | 22.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Liverpool FC | 78c | 21.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Manchester City FC | 74c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Liverpool FC | 80c | 14.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 167 | 57.5%96 W · 71 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Liverpool FC | 72c | 14.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Liverpool FC | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.