NBA · resolved market
Will the Thunder beat the Grizzlies 4-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8a218397b3b0bd53ac73f1342157310c3656a862cab140eb3e3f51db40af55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31e2…a1dbbacked Yes | 60c | 32,831$19,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,132.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…7a01backed No | 40c | 32,831$13,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,132.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…bd1bbacked No | 54c | 22,004$11,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,882.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…8b9ebacked Yes | 46c | 22,004$10,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,882.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…e10bbacked No | 47c | 20,215$9,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,501.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe841…d8a4backed Yes | 53c | 20,215$10,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,501.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 57c | 2,252$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.88 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 54c | 1,748$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.39 | 232 | 37.1%86 W · 146 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 48c | 1,500$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 40c | 1,135$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.07 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 41c | 1,048$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.17 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 48c | 940.06$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.42 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 41c | 926.25$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.01 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 51c | 903.65$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.63 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…6e0ebacked Yes | 54c | 553.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.54 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…aefabacked No | 53c | 501.14$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 465.6$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.44 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 41c | 321.95$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…2cc4backed Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f7…00f9backed No | 52c | 304.47$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.24 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 54c | 284.78$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 41c | 227.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes | 64c | 190.06$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…83a4backed Yes | 63c | 158.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 55c | 137.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 55c | 67.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…2273backed Yes | 43c | 54.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…9d17backed Yes | 59c | 32.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…34fabacked Yes | 60c | 24.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…dbdcbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…b6f8backed Yes | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Thunder beat the Grizzlies 4-0?this page
- Will the Grizzlies beat the Thunder 4-2?No won
- Will the Grizzlies beat the Thunder 4-3?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Grizzlies 4-1?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Grizzlies 4-2?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Grizzlies 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.