NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f074a447674a6fdd1d2001a28e2297f2b0e9aeb89eb362227ba6a836c4730a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 36c | 2,670$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.8 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 74c | 2,586$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.36 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 64c | 2,562$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.8 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 2,396$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.35 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 26c | 2,389$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.14 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 73c | 2,156$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.13 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 16c | 2,021$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.12 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 72c | 1,863$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.73 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 21c | 1,102$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.12 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Under | 62c | 945.68$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.32 | 247 | 49.8%123 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 38c | 711.07$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.87 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 39c | 499.97$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.98 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 15c | 424.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 61c | 409.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.51 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 28c | 303.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0351…ab88backed Under | 45c | 289.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 26c | 283$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 69c | 276.03$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 11c | 260.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 20c | 251.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Under | 20c | 238$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…d8fbbacked Under | 62c | 236.42$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.58 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 7c | 211.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 38c | 205.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 73c | 192.34$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6015…335abacked Under | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 62c | 136.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Over | 39c | 134.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Over | 73c | 134.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 78c | 127.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 38c | 126.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 74c | 125.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 38c | 119.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 28c | 117.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 76c | 96.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 60c | 94.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Under | 26c | 92.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 71c | 82.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Over | 73c | 72.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Over | 80c | 71.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Under | 71c | 69.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 46c | 69.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7579…524abacked Under | 16c | 69.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Under | 63c | 68.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Over | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Over | 38c | 66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 16c | 65.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Under | 61c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 26c | 57.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 61c | 56.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…9b4bbacked Over | 73c | 53.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Under | 28c | 45.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Under | 60c | 43.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 39.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…847dbacked Under | 28c | 38.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951b…291abacked Over | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 60c | 31.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa635…ceedbacked Over | 79c | 29.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 38c | 28.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Under | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Under | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Under | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 63c | 16.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 75c | 14.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5this page
- Oilers vs. DucksDucks won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.