NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09c5574bc53422c9b97f7c176bd55c477fbf75ae6efe00501f433599cf25bcae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Oilers, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Ducks | 73c | 2,051$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Oilers | 37c | 1,300$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.1 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Oilers | 26c | 1,142$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.55 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Oilers | 8c | 1,070$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Oilers | 2c | 727.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Ducks | 79c | 631.41$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.12 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Ducks | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oilers | 35c | 381.33$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Oilers | 26c | 371.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Ducks | 75c | 368.85$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Ducks | 53c | 363.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.21 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Ducks | 63c | 360.17$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.26 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Oilers | 34c | 319.26$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Ducks | 71c | 276.11$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Oilers | 50c | 239.17$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Ducks | 67c | 235.35$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Oilers | 19c | 235.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Oilers | 16c | 212$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Oilers | 33c | 203.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Oilers | 18c | 188.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Oilers | 11c | 188.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Ducks | 75c | 174.9$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Oilers | 17c | 173.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Oilers | 29c | 172.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Oilers | 36c | 133.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Ducks | 72c | 133.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ducks | 75c | 132.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ducks | 64c | 132$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Oilers | 35c | 127.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…958cbacked Oilers | 37c | 99.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Ducks | 63c | 83.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Oilers | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Ducks | 72c | 74.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -8.4wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Ducks | 67c | 74.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Ducks | 67c | 72.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…3df5backed Oilers | 36c | 70.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Oilers | 35c | 68.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Ducks | 66c | 65.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed Ducks | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Oilers | 21c | 59.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…463cbacked Ducks | 65c | 55.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Oilers | 35c | 54.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Oilers | 39c | 53.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Ducks | 67c | 51.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Ducks | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Oilers | 30c | 49.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ducks | 53c | 49.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…52f9backed Oilers | 36c | 48.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Oilers | 34c | 48.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Ducks | 65c | 40.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 67c | 30.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Ducks | 66c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Ducks | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Ducks | 72c | 24.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Ducks | 67c | 23.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Oilers | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Ducks | 73c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Ducks | 73c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Ducks | 63c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Ducks | 65c | 21.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…0438backed Ducks | 77c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Ducks | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ducks | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Ducks | 73c | 19.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Ducks | 73c | 17.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…ef4ebacked Ducks | 73c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Ducks | 73c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 191 | 53.4%102 W · 89 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. DucksDucks won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.