Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f11eebbca6106ec3c6836f0b05e57230076b11739b1a622ce2200d469c2d654
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 17c | 1,395$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.44 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 8c | 499.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 18c | 499.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 10c | 466.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 80c | 333.33$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 14c | 294.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 210.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed Yes | 6c | 192.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 167.74$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 160.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 24c | 159.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 17c | 141.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 136.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…7a70backed Yes | 18c | 135.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 30c | 133.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 8c | 127.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 120.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 80c | 116.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 18c | 108.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 107.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 76c | 100.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 80c | 81.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked Yes | 15c | 77.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 17c | 73.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 68.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 68.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked Yes | 18c | 56.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 33c | 55.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…e1c7backed Yes | 27c | 52.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 21c | 51.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…c153backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 71c | 43.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…e65bbacked Yes | 23c | 42.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 29c | 37.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 71c | 31.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 18.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 69c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.