TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,236 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f5a…2723backed Yes1c2,003$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes33c709.41$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.825,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No53c571.68$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.3276755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes29c550.61$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.145427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c457$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.195,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes30c436.02$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.813151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c05…416cbacked Yes7c392.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.361118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9883…5f49backed Yes73c350$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes44c312.09$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.769634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No41c311.55$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3461821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c308.32$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.953,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No74c296.64$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.758,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c295.62$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6747…29ebbacked Yes41c242.52$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c234.37$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.241,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No80c215.53$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.442,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes70c214.66$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No59c209.33$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.043,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes71c200.45$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x559c…eeb8backed Yes19c171.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+57.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No66c164.11$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7989661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No75c162.82$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.071,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2148…4381backed Yes32c156.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No66c151.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8215570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No72c145.87$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.781,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No65c144.26$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8110757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes24c140.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes29c140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.620534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3032…99e7backed No72c137.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes45c134.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.92,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes9c125.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.861816.7%3 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d90…bb3dbacked Yes80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes21c123.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4527756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes38c116.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.861,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No77c116$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.622,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes23c109.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.326719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes45c109.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No33c106$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.421,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.249941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes27c98.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2718534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes39c98.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3811436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No64c88.41$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8113755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes22c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes26c75.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7633139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes39c75.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3039427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes28c71.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2066926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c71.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.837,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ead…f333backed Yes26c69.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.24531.1%14 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No56c68.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.382,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No71c68.45$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.094,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes30c67.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No70c67.14$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1421847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6353…d73dbacked No77c64.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.82683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c59.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.84,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes42c59.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2552444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cbb…ca06backed Yes69c57.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No78c55.13$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1488973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes37c54.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.244628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c34…6571backed Yes32c54.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes30c53.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.018036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes39c51.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e9…02babacked Yes29c51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.913534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.83,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4497…c671backed Yes23c49.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes24c49.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No59c49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x804b…b090backed Yes57c48.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3118365.6%120 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes28c47.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2121272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2733…5ae8backed Yes21c47.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4363…c153backed Yes32c46.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x994c…5218backed Yes77c46.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes32c46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.934139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes23c45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.358337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No72c44.16$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5655855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7975…f4a2backed Yes46c43.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-45.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No32c42.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.141,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes76c42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7520144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No64c41.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0633567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No60c41.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6791861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8947…4635backed No73c40.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.173775.7%28 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+45.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No73c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8750860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No71c39.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3550373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0e6…ab8abacked No79c38.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.181338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x966a…16f6backed Yes79c38.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick78cpaid-67.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No27c37.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0451631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No62c36.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0971159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6192…48efbacked Yes80c36.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.798856.8%50 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e9…af97backed Yes74c33.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510658.5%62 W · 44 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90ff…4fe2backed No76c32.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.842676.9%20 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No62c32.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.481,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x308b…35e9backed Yes77c32.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c32.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbbad…8426backed Yes78c31.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.383938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.