TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd281…d824backed Yes0c3,909$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes51c1,189$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.5765043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No48c610.82$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.418,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes44c518.47$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.845427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes46c441.59$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20217135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No52c409.53$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.3476755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes43c395.34$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.8717140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes46c348.9$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.181,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No51c304.52$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.281,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No54c279.25$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.994,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No46c256.66$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.189634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No49c232.36$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.551,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes14c226.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.235,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No54c221.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.891,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes54c209.72$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.941,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No51c191.73$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.3683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No58c167.74$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.822,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes45c167.71$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7621847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No58c166.39$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No52c164.77$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.573,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes41c156.83$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9320534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ff…4fe2backed No62c154.08$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.252676.9%20 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No47c144.08$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9661821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes39c143.77$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No54c135$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.855855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c134.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No54c129.49$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0950373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes47c128.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c125.93$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No59c117.71$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7111459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes51c117.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1648…1cdfbacked No54c101.01$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8249941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5913941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No54c99.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4629953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes48c99.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes47c95.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c95$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.324,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes42c94.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No52c90$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.935,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c85.73$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No45c84.63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5549646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No50c74.67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0457545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No49c72.19$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.763,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes53c69.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5751553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked No47c66.51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.48036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ead…f333backed Yes37c64.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.344531.1%14 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No67c64.36$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0288973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c59.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.593,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83fc…aae2backed Yes50c59.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No55c59.83$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.745,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes47c57.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe399…b921backed No52c57.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.467150.7%36 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c56.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.614,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes45c56.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.654628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes47c56.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6744536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No54c53.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.782,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No53c52.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9910757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes48c52.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2733…5ae8backed Yes39c50.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.365733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ef2…8f5ebacked Yes47c50.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f22…db25backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0534934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.210966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4363…c153backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2139427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes51c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.491,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No49c49.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3815669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No62c48.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4333450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked No52c47.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0433561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes43c46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.624139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed Yes53c45.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8524053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No64c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.227669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes34c43.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6911835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738f…2d66backed Yes47c42.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3380050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes48c41.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04a9…5165backed Yes43c41.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No67c41.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.472,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.421339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x911a…6fcfbacked Yes50c39.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6891861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe256…0408backed Yes53c39.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.873641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No64c39.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.192,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b2…1decbacked No55c39.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.483464.7%22 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ed…0711backed Yes34c39.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.332729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No57c39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7819353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes36c38.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x269a…5628backed No53c37.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.92785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208446.4%39 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c34…6571backed Yes47c37.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x393e…b2f0backed No50c36.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.354163.4%26 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No52c36.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.471159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf23…3f54backed Yes42c36.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.272623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes43c35.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.