Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09929d169aa0c6c33fcb8f72d3636ea55a809f84616d2a85564667042a0945e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd281…d824backed Yes | 0c | 3,909$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 1,189$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.57 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 610.82$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 44c | 518.47$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.84 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 46c | 441.59$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 52c | 409.53$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.34 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 43c | 395.34$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.87 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 46c | 348.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.18 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 304.52$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 279.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 46c | 256.66$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.18 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 49c | 232.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.55 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 226.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 54c | 221.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 209.72$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 191.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 167.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 45c | 167.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 166.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 164.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 41c | 156.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 62c | 154.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 47c | 144.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 39c | 143.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 54c | 135$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 134.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 54c | 129.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 47c | 128.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 125.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 59c | 117.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 51c | 117.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…1cdfbacked No | 54c | 101.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 47c | 95.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 42c | 94.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 85.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 84.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 50c | 74.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 72.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 53c | 69.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 47c | 66.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 37c | 64.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 64.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 59.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed Yes | 50c | 59.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 59.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 47c | 57.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 52c | 57.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 56.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 45c | 56.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 47c | 56.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 53.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 53c | 52.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 48c | 52.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 39c | 50.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…8f5ebacked Yes | 47c | 50.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f22…db25backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…c153backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 49c | 49.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 62c | 48.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 52c | 47.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 53c | 45.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 34c | 43.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…2d66backed Yes | 47c | 42.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed Yes | 43c | 41.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 41.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x911a…6fcfbacked Yes | 50c | 39.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 53c | 39.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 39.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 55c | 39.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 34c | 39.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…5628backed No | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c34…6571backed Yes | 47c | 37.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 50c | 36.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 52c | 36.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 42c | 36.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 43c | 35.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.