TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PuckChampof Spirit Academy, PuckChamp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,964 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed Spirit Academy45c13,028$5,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,862.4747646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed PuckChamp53c5,244$2,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,442.697350.7%37 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ee…ffe2backed PuckChamp73c4,081$2,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.343951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Spirit Academy36c3,587$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.180256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked PuckChamp60c3,376$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.3650347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Spirit Academy76c2,475$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87913943.9%61 W · 78 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Spirit Academy39c2,353$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.858550.6%43 W · 42 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked PuckChamp58c2,324$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.1550850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed PuckChamp54c2,070$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.1824255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Spirit Academy31c1,761$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.8429240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PuckChamp72c1,640$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.9579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed PuckChamp44c1,576$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.0914646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Spirit Academy32c1,551$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0217757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed PuckChamp48c1,437$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.2954246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PuckChamp55c1,393$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.32,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Spirit Academy53c1,318$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70019251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Spirit Academy77c1,298$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Spirit Academy46c1,269$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.911,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Spirit Academy31c1,173$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Spirit Academy38c1,151$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.561456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked PuckChamp54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.9969835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked PuckChamp69c926$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.6379341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Spirit Academy23c899.09$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.993941%16 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked PuckChamp56c844.95$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.1821558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked PuckChamp55c783.64$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.6412646%58 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Spirit Academy26c734$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.528045%36 W · 44 L+9.8wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Spirit Academy22c699.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15418143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Spirit Academy40c657.5$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26318437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed PuckChamp55c636.36$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.3641037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde24…2b2fbacked PuckChamp55c636.36$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed PuckChamp56c610.54$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.6926247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked PuckChamp55c606.73$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.7312253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Spirit Academy25c568.08$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.73046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba01…1a89backed Spirit Academy35c556.81$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1965244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Spirit Academy72c531.42$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.961,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed PuckChamp55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed PuckChamp37c499.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.9932445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Spirit Academy39c499.68$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6713635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Spirit Academy40c486.4$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.569543.2%41 W · 54 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Spirit Academy50c436.55$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Spirit Academy17c417$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8911445.6%52 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed PuckChamp55c405.77$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1891553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked PuckChamp56c403.25$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.6389238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked PuckChamp62c402.06$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.0619456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe434…f520backed PuckChamp63c398.95$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.955352.8%28 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Spirit Academy15c376.62$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9842053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Spirit Academy9c374.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6711444.7%51 W · 63 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy38c370.2$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked PuckChamp56c356$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.771,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed Spirit Academy31c349.54$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0615940.9%65 W · 94 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93b6…5d73backed Spirit Academy40c348.2$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2813336.8%49 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed PuckChamp50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed PuckChamp61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.082955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe489…8804backed Spirit Academy22c299.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6514349%70 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked PuckChamp49c279.22$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9115050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed PuckChamp75c260$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6513975.5%105 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ec…2711backed PuckChamp55c254.55$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5510039%39 W · 61 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed PuckChamp20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2009848%47 W · 51 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+38.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Spirit Academy48c246.13$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1437745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Spirit Academy17c240$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.813044.6%58 W · 72 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PuckChamp72c232.3$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.921,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Spirit Academy33c217.64$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7578516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed PuckChamp55c212.95$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8327737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed PuckChamp51c210.36$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.231,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked PuckChamp50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10070052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed PuckChamp39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12234860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked PuckChamp40c199$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0766545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe61a…292dbacked Spirit Academy36c196.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.122558.2%131 W · 94 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PuckChamp55c186.09$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.481,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed PuckChamp57c184.07$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6781345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Spirit Academy42c183.31$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9961449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed Spirit Academy27c182.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506349.2%31 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked PuckChamp51c180.39$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3915957.9%92 W · 67 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1785…a867backed Spirit Academy46c174.63$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891a…f778backed Spirit Academy63c170$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.12540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3a8…e8c5backed PuckChamp77c166.88$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.385860.3%35 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PuckChamp50c166.23$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8789938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Spirit Academy34c161.32$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4733845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp54c160.94$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.041,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy13c160.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.542,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked PuckChamp50c156.24$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.128035%28 W · 52 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb491…4400backed Spirit Academy16c152.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.992321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62f7…6573backed PuckChamp52c148.11$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.792254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39c2…dc0bbacked PuckChamp74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed PuckChamp54c135$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.126154.8%143 W · 118 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfce…5c3ebacked Spirit Academy40c132.45$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.981353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed Spirit Academy28c124.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc59…1b00backed Spirit Academy39c123.49$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.952544%11 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d2d…2be7backed Spirit Academy20c120.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.682119%4 W · 17 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick42cpaid-67%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked PuckChamp26c115.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3891356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked PuckChamp50c115.19$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.065550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf20…1881backed Spirit Academy25c114.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.572740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dde…efdfbacked Spirit Academy46c110.46$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.053033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd181…6a2bbacked Spirit Academy64c110.08$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9717660.2%106 W · 70 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Spirit Academy43c103.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8937754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Spirit Academy34c103.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.756945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b13…37dbbacked PuckChamp40c100.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.613452.9%18 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed PuckChamp59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4125354.5%138 W · 115 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72c8…a74cbacked PuckChamp50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5024942.6%106 W · 143 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PuckChamp24c99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4769132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.