Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f597c3e2eeeea20e9bd8886a0fc5258da13ff025c43d457fef2d80bdeedf85e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 810.95$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.18 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 686$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.95 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 367.5$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 55c | 306.44$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.54 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 216.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 10c | 179.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 173.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 66c | 167.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 161$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 139.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 51c | 112.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 53c | 104.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 52c | 102.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d266backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 99.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 98.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 95.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 95.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 89.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 80.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 64c | 74.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 74.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 23c | 70.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 69c | 70.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 66.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 37c | 65.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…185cbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 39c | 50.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 23c | 47.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 39.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 38.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 40c | 35.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 54c | 34.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 31.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 30.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 28.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 27.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 66c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1890…d328backed No | 65c | 21.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked Yes | 54c | 19.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 64c | 18.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 61c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.