Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6f03fdf59a73e16569747fc2dc8fc7f3cbcfa5df42f055c6061aef5c0ea53c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 1,045$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 26c | 877.5$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.47 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 49c | 406.29$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 289.54$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 257.07$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.02 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 58c | 215.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.57 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 195.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 142.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 78c | 127.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 66c | 117.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 113.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 63c | 105.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 104.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 102.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 101.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 100.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424b…9fc8backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 92.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 89.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 86.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed Yes | 76c | 79.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 78.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 69.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 72c | 69.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 35c | 69.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 70c | 49.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 49.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 44.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 77c | 38.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 36.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 35.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 35.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 34.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 31.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 37c | 27.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 46c | 25.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 24.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 69c | 23.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 21.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 78c | 16.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 77c | 15.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 72c | 14.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 13.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.