MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f8525613df68ce6cdbb03d7d23527ef443fdff320c82ea9f2c60606ba0385ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 51c | 15,221$7,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,762.47 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 9,783$4,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,989.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 47c | 2,164$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.14 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 1,335$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 1,287$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.74 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 63c | 1,153$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.61 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 47c | 1,142$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.26 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 53c | 1,009$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.93 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 50c | 829.18$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.59 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 49c | 736$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.36 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 722.58$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.37 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 49c | 611.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.77 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 49c | 539.03$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.91 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 402.82$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.15 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 289.35$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Over | 48c | 214.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 31c | 196$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 48c | 186.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 168.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 52c | 163.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 71c | 139.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 101.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 38c | 100.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 63c | 91.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 39c | 78.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 78.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Over | 46c | 75.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 36c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 63.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 64c | 53.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5111…a164backed Under | 40c | 50.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceba…a705backed Over | 51c | 49.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Under | 52c | 36.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 50c | 34.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Under | 52c | 34.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 54c | 33.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Under | 52c | 29.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…c217backed Under | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 52c | 26.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 56c | 18.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 14.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.