MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48994d832f410b0420c8f45317ad1de55dcc6d52194954f5889a14eeb5e53bbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 4,928$2,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.62 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed New York Yankees | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 33c | 2,539$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30b…b9dbbacked New York Yankees | 44c | 2,448$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 1,561$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.84 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 79c | 1,264$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 897.43$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 533.39$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.36 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 76c | 489.97$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.55 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed New York Yankees | 42c | 476.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked New York Yankees | 43c | 320$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Minnesota Twins | 79c | 318.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 278.23$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Yankees | 42c | 251$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed New York Yankees | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 24c | 231.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked New York Yankees | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed New York Yankees | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Yankees | 23c | 163.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed New York Yankees | 45c | 125.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 42c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 27c | 90.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked New York Yankees | 24c | 77.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed New York Yankees | 26c | 66.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 63.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed New York Yankees | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 43c | 51.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 45.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed New York Yankees | 43c | 35.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Minnesota Twins | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed New York Yankees | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked New York Yankees | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 26.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -9.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 14.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.