MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63340c0f15053d8667348706a3f593074f8a5db236a46a8b495efd0818e36ee4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 45c | 134,804$60,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,004.67 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 55c | 58,710$32,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,419.7 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 25,616$14,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,354.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 58c | 13,794$7,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,794.6 | 435 | 54%235 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 7,243$4,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,186.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 6,959$3,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,061.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 56c | 6,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 5,891$3,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 4,832$2,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 57c | 2,535$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 56c | 1,847$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.69 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 56c | 1,361$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.63 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 56c | 1,316$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.19 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 56c | 910$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 42c | 568.79$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.89 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 56c | 531.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.89 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 56c | 439$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.16 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 45c | 300$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 57c | 273.47$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.59 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 259.32$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 74c | 247.61$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 57c | 245.61$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 235.41$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 55c | 226.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 199.82$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 196.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 56c | 192$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 190$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Over | 57c | 172$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 56c | 140$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 57c | 136.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Over | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec8…e97ebacked Under | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 117.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…c65dbacked Over | 56c | 115.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 101.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…8c2ebacked Under | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 57c | 93.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 74c | 90.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 55c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Over | 56c | 78.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 73.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 46c | 71.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 64.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…667bbacked Under | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 57c | 58.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Over | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked Over | 58c | 37.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 44c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Over | 55c | 26.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 57c | 20.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Over | 57c | 18.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 14.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.