Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fbd2a1acc30ebdfa9dbfb41aa1f1df33f244444729bf49bdedb9c8b64f3dbf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 80c | 2,183$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.14 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 19c | 1,556$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.22 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 72c | 957.14$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.93 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1b…c6fcbacked Yes | 27c | 951.85$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 73c | 935.7$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.1 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc5…38d9backed Yes | 27c | 895.25$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.53 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…529bbacked Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.29 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 7c | 628.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 28c | 550$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 72c | 390.51$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.17 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe345…4555backed Yes | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…51d0backed No | 73c | 218.49$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…55dbbacked Yes | 27c | 207.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +267.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…b0fcbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…7bbbbacked Yes | 28c | 151.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +106%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…5ec4backed No | 74c | 148.65$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729d…663dbacked No | 73c | 136.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 27c | 125.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 27c | 123.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…16f2backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a78…8ed1backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…1402backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 26c | 104$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…6dacbacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b2…736cbacked Yes | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +211.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 16c | 77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…2144backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…f913backed Yes | 28c | 43.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1673…e40dbacked Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…9fe8backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…b635backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal beat Manchester City?No won
- Will Manchester City beat Arsenal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.