Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal beat Manchester City?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c265a4e0dc357945830fad51b245a86e2dbe782fad7a52a96589f5c293a7c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 79c | 35,803$28,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,513.9 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…cbf1backed Yes | 19c | 30,055$5,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,710.45 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 44c | 14,010$6,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,212.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 51c | 3,878$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.21 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…ce9dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,824$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 79c | 1,949$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.39 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed No | 50c | 1,810$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +211.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 19c | 1,702$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.68 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 44c | 1,520$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.2 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 28c | 1,031$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.59 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 20c | 999.83$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 19c | 950$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…2549backed No | 47c | 662.39$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.77 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 80c | 647.2$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1b…c6fcbacked Yes | 20c | 510.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…7132backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 19c | 447.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 21c | 400$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 20c | 348.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 22c | 325$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 21c | 300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a78…8ed1backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…c75fbacked Yes | 20c | 260.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…f913backed Yes | 27c | 255$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce62…73d5backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Yes | 19c | 249.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…9b67backed Yes | 19c | 242.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 57c | 240$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa80f…4fa0backed Yes | 32c | 210.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…5947backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 77c | 187.17$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 67c | 161.55$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…b9cfbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…e855backed Yes | 28c | 135$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 19c | 134.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…782dbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 23c | 117.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…df23backed Yes | 24c | 104.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…6dccbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…e195backed Yes | 20c | 73.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e07…80d1backed No | 68c | 68.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…6dacbacked Yes | 58c | 58.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…29cebacked No | 64c | 58.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…06bbbacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…7cc7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…e856backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…b8a5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal beat Manchester City?this page
- Will Manchester City beat Arsenal?No won
- Will Manchester City vs. Arsenal end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.