Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd84e716952e5e9fce71ddba0a0e4f36f4c2003257b7a9179e627d481ad7cf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 72c | 463.84$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.17 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 275.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 9c | 199.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 55c | 187.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 186.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 140.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 45c | 120.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 117.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 107.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 102.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 77c | 98.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 98.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 96.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 90.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 86.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 86.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 84.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 75.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 70.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 69.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 63.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 50.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 70c | 49.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 45.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 45.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 43.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 50c | 40.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 62c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed No | 64c | 37.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 37.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 50c | 37.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 37.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 72c | 36.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 35.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 39c | 35.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 49c | 30.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 71c | 27.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 25.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 49c | 23.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 23.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 22.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…d0f6backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 65c | 17.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.