TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,740 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes30c7,999$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,599.310445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No70c4,821$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,374.543,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No77c4,721$3,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,632.791,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x702b…dedebacked Yes24c4,342$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.672142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+68.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No76c3,508$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.452250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No73c3,261$2,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,367.116167.2%41 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No69c2,829$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.411,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes73c2,710$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.5128241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No76c2,361$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.3662452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed No43c1,780$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.8319139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No42c1,639$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.462,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No46c1,604$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.2424541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4a…2881backed Yes23c1,080$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No15c987.03$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4714315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Yes25c787.04$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.046129.5%18 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf0d…dea7backed Yes24c745.83$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.83650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes78c639.98$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.981266.7%8 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes28c544.64$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.644129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No43c424.31$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.861,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf053…3939backed Yes78c417.77$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa83…4965backed Yes32c313.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No77c300$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2316256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6791…b1febacked Yes52c251.6$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Yes30c250$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1753023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes24c208.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.336827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecad…875cbacked Yes24c205$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.82119%4 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7014…41eebacked Yes32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+102.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e93…5da3backed Yes44c190.91$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.91580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+42.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No68c184.39$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.395928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes24c143.33$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.936845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked No78c135.44$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3718353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd631…fff8backed Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No20c118.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1328822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed No67c109.01$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.192755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e7c…0df6backed Yes23c108.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+117.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes22c108.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.6935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67d2…a008backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7238845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3b…6583backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705563.6%35 W · 20 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3df…16d6backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703666.7%24 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef88…29a3backed Yes64c95.6$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.533262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes71c91$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.716553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed Yes23c90.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.995232.7%17 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e1a…d5a3backed No11c88.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.012941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No67c87$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8944655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed No77c85.71$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Yes31c80.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.652835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c4…7c65backed No74c74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.944555.6%25 W · 20 L-6.3wins-0.14per pick70cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No54c71.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5530647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No76c65.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9937344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No46c65.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2423842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cd…e951backed No77c64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.281764.7%11 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick74cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x452f…b277backed Yes24c62.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.55945.8%27 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes22c55.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e54…7ff1backed Yes31c55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338636%31 W · 55 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3821450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387639.5%30 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3825855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.783636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No29c45.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.018541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No75c45$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6178248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b2…fb99backed Yes79c37.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes33c37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7922221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2227554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No76c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.642046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes79c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3522669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed No75c33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.753339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed No76c32.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.663540%14 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb196…33d5backed No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810262.7%64 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa126…9e20backed Yes75c27.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed No65c26.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2210943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed No78c26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.286462.5%40 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73b1…6375backed No77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed No76c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1912165.3%79 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e76…47fabacked No76c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199564.2%61 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.622332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafeb…5cd2backed Yes78c17.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.951758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick69cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e6…cc7fbacked Yes79c17.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x093b…4e14backed No76c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43076.7%23 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.