TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa126…9e20

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
39
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-72.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$45.93
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+49.1%+$6.87
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+81.6%+$38.78
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$77.2
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$63
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$276.62
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.82
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.78
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$84.92
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.18
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.46
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+240.2%+$312.99
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.27
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.55
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$19.26
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+59%+$11.8
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublevbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$53.18
ASB Classic: Elina Svitolina vs Iva Jovicbacked Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+35.9%+$10.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$109.25
Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$111.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+138.1%+$27.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+36.9%+$7.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Heerenveen vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+36.6%+$9.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oregon win the 2026 College Football National Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+29.7%+$5.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$13.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$18.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.