TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$461,698
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$550,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,698 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 387 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72b4…7d67backed No44c63,903$28,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,785.474938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes57c39,940$22,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,608.3233945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes56c27,300$15,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,28810445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes52c26,885$14,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,075.417757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No44c24,841$10,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,910.89455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No43c19,947$8,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,353.5869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes56c15,275$8,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,595.571,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Yes56c13,623$7,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,660.714650%23 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes55c10,246$5,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,680.5338748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7baf…99a7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ca3…0a1abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a8…06d9backed No43c8,747$3,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,985.74666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+76.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No43c8,700$3,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,958.982951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed No44c7,750$3,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3401241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No42c7,155$3,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,132.0934144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No43c7,040$3,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,012.85549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Yes59c6,768$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-63.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes57c6,000$3,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,389.9933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes56c5,417$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,033.5217251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed Yes53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6502356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes56c4,901$2,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,756.2922047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes42c4,867$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.7428241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2b…34e4backed No42c4,400$1,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.985100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+98.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Yes58c4,200$2,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4365152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No42c4,032$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.674341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed No43c3,850$1,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.492035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ca…5d8dbacked No45c3,333$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,833.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+85.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f1e…5a2abacked No43c3,252$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.752352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No64c3,069$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.462,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,74011354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No44c2,823$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.453645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No43c2,715$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.9362452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0168…0905backed Yes57c2,477$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.1862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2073…385bbacked Yes56c2,368$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No43c2,355$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.9935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38fe…a923backed No48c2,291$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.72759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d04…7a5fbacked No44c2,290$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed No62c2,205$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.4219139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes8c2,014$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1658932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed No43c2,001$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.5610154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1c…6535backed No42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1601637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…cfd8backed Yes56c1,976$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No48c1,818$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.893,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac1…a0f2backed Yes58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa579…99edbacked No44c1,636$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Yes40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb700…b06bbacked Yes57c1,158$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed No39c1,145$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.4516045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes58c1,034$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60017652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed No44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked No44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5605655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5606256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf0d…dea7backed Yes58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5702646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5509854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5705425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Yes41c978.88$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003429.4%10 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes56c965.91$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.5456951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Yes55c901.88$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.543748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes56c895$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.28143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes57c877.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Yes57c877.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006129.5%18 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No52c874.57$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.361,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…8fd8backed Yes56c867.98$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.071553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc19f…d8b2backed Yes56c821.43$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Yes49c821$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.292962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes56c800$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4488248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8a…4e15backed No45c720$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3964100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+110.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes56c712$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.7218545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4053…91b9backed Yes56c700$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3287…3dc3backed Yes56c690$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd325…d6d1backed No45c670$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yes49c661.11$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.8616046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes57c593.01$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.593050%15 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes22c576.21$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9749143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes57c559.65$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be4…a5d7backed Yes56c535.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Yes56c535.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4b46…188ebacked Yes57c529.61$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.881353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No43c512$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.8430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2857057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Yes57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2858251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…8e46backed Yes56c499.97$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.981936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No44c454.14$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.5619446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Yes47c428.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Yes57c403.51$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2308363.9%53 W · 30 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2363857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Yes56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2243458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a24…98a7backed Yes56c400$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bc…1b77backed Yes58c397.64$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f6…4892backed Yes51c388.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006645.5%30 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Yes56c383.21$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.12334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes60c371.62$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.979646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Yes55c362.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20b2…3152backed Yes57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…c413backed Yes57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa83…4965backed Yes58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x650e…9147backed Yes58c342.43$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.611030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1602…6a86backed No44c339.64$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.