Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2032670f0029b4c3c82865928e85bbd198e83497af3cf3e9fa8e0f35c72f8edc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 712.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 41c | 393.36$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 369.16$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 226.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 33c | 114.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 89.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 68c | 85.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 81.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 75.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 75.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 27c | 74.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 73.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 69.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 63.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 38c | 61.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 61.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 57.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 77c | 55.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 32c | 51.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 50.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 56c | 50.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…bde5backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 67c | 46.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 44.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 30c | 42.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 42.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 38.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 43c | 35.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 34.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 33.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 32.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 30.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 65c | 29.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 68c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 27.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 62c | 27.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 66c | 27.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 22.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 20.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 80c | 20.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 70c | 20.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 16.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.