Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81585efedaf5934ffc6efc2e7fadb9179e5cc5784ee028f0f3854a3ca27ed765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 28c | 1,523$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.94 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 67c | 395.5$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 292.04$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 266.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 32c | 256.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 233.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 226$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 5c | 225$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 216.13$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 215$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 213.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 50c | 180.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 157.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 155.1$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 154.3$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 80c | 145.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 138.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 42c | 123.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 122.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 117.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 42c | 108.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 108$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 57c | 102.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…1c3dbacked Yes | 15c | 102.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 98.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 60c | 93.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 89.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 85.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 82.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 82.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 61c | 82.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 61c | 79.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 77.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 77.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 66c | 74.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 40c | 71.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 71.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 70.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 44c | 67.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 65.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 63.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…37c5backed Yes | 44c | 61.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 61.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 47c | 60.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 44c | 59.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 58.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 34c | 56.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 38c | 52.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 67c | 50.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…9e98backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…0e38backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 49.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 32c | 45.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 45.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 41c | 45.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…db13backed No | 59c | 45.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 45.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 43.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 55c | 43.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 42.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 36c | 41.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 42c | 40.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 40.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…2776backed Yes | 43c | 35.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 69c | 35.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 32c | 33.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 33.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 66c | 32.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 30.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 55c | 29.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba1…ea18backed Yes | 56c | 26.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 24.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1a…07f0backed No | 57c | 23.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…d9e3backed Yes | 44c | 22.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 21.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.