South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20374c53828868d4b19d79860bb0a2dd3bdabc28addefdaf44a145c71fab77a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 29c | 11,307$3,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,287.55 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 9,345$6,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.88 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 30c | 5,927$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.14 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 1,570$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.98 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 31c | 631.14$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.17 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 19c | 560.21$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 23c | 552.86$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…2f38backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…8036backed Yes | 21c | 448.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 69c | 282.2$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 70c | 240$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 15c | 166.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…18cdbacked Yes | 28c | 151.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 77c | 123$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 28c | 97.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Yes | 20c | 76.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 75c | 61.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…9488backed Yes | 20c | 57.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes | 20c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…3a8fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 26c | 39.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 72c | 35.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 73c | 28.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed No | 72c | 27.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…a351backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-07-30?Yes won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.