Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-04-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20685fe3f3644232b8fe815794c6e6309e029e9b90cee7a9cbb2d916fa1ffff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 10,186$7,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,935.92 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 22c | 7,189$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,609.63 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Yes | 25c | 4,593$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,427.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 4,084$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,193.51 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 21c | 2,381$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.95 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,250$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a48…e094backed Yes | 22c | 1,604$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +241.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 70c | 1,344$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.54 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 78c | 1,287$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Yes | 26c | 1,150$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 20c | 992.67$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.23 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 903.82$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.29 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 892.03$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.77 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 35c | 872.76$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.15 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 27c | 637.94$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.07 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Yes | 24c | 506.13$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Yes | 24c | 500$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…8531backed No | 21c | 473.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 73c | 339$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 312.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.02 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 35c | 300.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.17 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…4f4bbacked Yes | 24c | 283.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…8f90backed Yes | 24c | 283.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 22c | 226.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 20c | 224.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.46 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed No | 28c | 220.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f89…e85bbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +207.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked No | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 59c | 191.14$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 19c | 186.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.22 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 56c | 177.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked No | 50c | 169$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed No | 51c | 162$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 65c | 152$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 137.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…7bd7backed No | 80c | 125.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 45c | 119.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 28c | 91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb940…29eebacked Yes | 24c | 77.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 16c | 65.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067e…625bbacked Yes | 24c | 62.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +215.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…6010backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 29c | 58.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 23c | 50.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…9192backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 78c | 45.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d6…4af7backed No | 78c | 34.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…1dd8backed No | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba2…f46bbacked No | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa633…1cf7backed No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 66c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…d3fbbacked No | 77c | 14.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-04-05?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.