Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb877384ed3616642275da0f6197068db787258d8688055e307464f1d5eafb63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 4,967$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.68 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 53c | 4,375$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.3 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 20c | 1,397$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.86 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Yes | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 976.96$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.1 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…13afbacked Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed No | 40c | 694.54$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.59 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 667.41$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.03 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 50c | 652.33$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.2 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 80c | 611.77$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4e…4f43backed Yes | 67c | 597.66$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 61c | 545.5$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.13 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Yes | 18c | 477.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 47c | 462.09$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.79 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…5439backed Yes | 34c | 437.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 26c | 381.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 44c | 341.02$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.81 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed No | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 285.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 73c | 275.78$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 40c | 205$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 26c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 36c | 144.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 20c | 129.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Yes | 30c | 120.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Yes | 57c | 105.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 20c | 104.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 60c | 100.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 98.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 72c | 97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 72c | 95.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 53c | 94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…f7d9backed No | 59c | 83.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 74c | 81.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked No | 71c | 79.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 52c | 72.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked No | 73c | 68.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 45c | 64.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 50c | 61.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 75c | 55.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 39c | 55.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 47c | 53.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 76c | 52.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 76c | 52.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 58c | 50.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 68c | 49.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…e392backed Yes | 41c | 49.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 39c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 77c | 46.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 45.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7a…3f62backed Yes | 37c | 40.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…d103backed Yes | 45c | 38.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed No | 67c | 31.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cccabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 52c | 19.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 65c | 16.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-05?No won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.