TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,747 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Spirit69c9,801$6,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,074.7986949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Nigma Galaxy32c6,563$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.148749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Spirit67c6,007$4,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.5854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Nigma Galaxy33c5,983$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.389636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy30c5,893$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.651,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Spirit75c5,254$3,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.5442650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Nigma Galaxy28c3,616$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Team Spirit74c2,895$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.638258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Team Spirit78c2,575$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.266160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Nigma Galaxy36c2,542$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.446649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Nigma Galaxy26c2,289$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.5181029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Nigma Galaxy29c2,051$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.699447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Spirit68c1,996$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.618746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Nigma Galaxy26c1,985$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.113045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Team Spirit74c1,836$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.486349.2%31 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Nigma Galaxy26c1,704$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.5951751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit73c1,649$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.561,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Nigma Galaxy24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit77c1,141$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.831,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy28c1,134$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.852,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Nigma Galaxy16c1,100$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17325147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d5a…c59ebacked Team Spirit64c1,088$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.26339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ad5…8919backed Team Spirit79c966.09$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.62454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed Nigma Galaxy21c947.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf4…181ebacked Team Spirit75c933.33$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3310770.1%75 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy26c905.92$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.881,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…8a8ebacked Team Spirit76c833.95$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.151266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Nigma Galaxy3c650$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit67c645.77$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.61,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nigma Galaxy21c625.32$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3256243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9db…3999backed Nigma Galaxy8c617.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Team Spirit72c599.99$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1687955.7%44 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Nigma Galaxy26c579.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.572154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Nigma Galaxy28c539$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5860251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1942…2c75backed Nigma Galaxy26c511.54$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1335339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Team Spirit71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14518075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Spirit65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17536759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nigma Galaxy29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Nigma Galaxy24c499.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed Team Spirit67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.763438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Nigma Galaxy28c422.33$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3510743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3804…6d61backed Team Spirit75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Spirit64c380.97$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.3966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Nigma Galaxy25c380.77$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964450%22 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Nigma Galaxy24c365.93$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887560%45 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Nigma Galaxy29c350$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.777458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Nigma Galaxy30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Spirit75c333.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3336654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Spirit73c319.77$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5229548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Nigma Galaxy36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10813456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit71c294.06$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.881,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Nigma Galaxy19c292.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5552649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Team Spirit73c280.71$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.167750.6%39 W · 38 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf93a…8a46backed Team Spirit75c265.69$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.425567.3%37 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Spirit77c260$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.814744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Team Spirit68c257.68$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4945052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Nigma Galaxy37c250$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.560552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Team Spirit75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5011960.5%72 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1034…b26dbacked Nigma Galaxy28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507146.5%33 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Spirit75c161.33$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3350855.5%282 W · 226 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7d…d1c9backed Team Spirit72c160$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Nigma Galaxy28c157.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0530647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4b4…17b1backed Nigma Galaxy13c155$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.513331.6%42 W · 91 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Nigma Galaxy38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5745139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Nigma Galaxy25c148$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3713441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Spirit67c143.98$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1156548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Team Spirit74c134.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.315158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed Team Spirit75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3324955.4%138 W · 111 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked Team Spirit68c133$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.297159.2%42 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked Team Spirit78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.219858.2%57 W · 41 L-0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Nigma Galaxy22c128.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.211,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked Nigma Galaxy21c123.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620151.2%103 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy22c117.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.721,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed Team Spirit75c117.52$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3821062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy26c117.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.581,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x598c…cc0bbacked Nigma Galaxy14c115.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.642025%5 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Team Spirit64c105$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.68461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Team Spirit76c101.63$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6520349.8%101 W · 102 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00fb…4442backed Team Spirit77c101.24$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.598763.2%55 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Team Spirit74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2634860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Nigma Galaxy27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2770052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Nigma Galaxy26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Nigma Galaxy26c96.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2586451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Team Spirit69c96$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6422456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b05…b133backed Team Spirit63c94.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5911254.5%61 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x899e…0863backed Nigma Galaxy32c94.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3026454.5%144 W · 120 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f9e…10c8backed Team Spirit76c89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.367149.3%35 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked Team Spirit62c84.52$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9229350.2%147 W · 146 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Team Spirit71c82.18$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1816752.7%88 W · 79 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Spirit78c80.01$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.831,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Nigma Galaxy25c79.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9772637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Nigma Galaxy34c78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5228549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed4…f891backed Team Spirit77c77.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.953256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Nigma Galaxy29c72.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.261,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Team Spirit67c72.18$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.624052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Nigma Galaxy28c68.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0644645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd077…46c0backed Team Spirit75c67.93$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.292050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x101f…b386backed Team Spirit76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7932154.8%176 W · 145 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Nigma Galaxy26c62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed Nigma Galaxy26c59.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.541435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.