Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x528791cab5b93b3ef488a3d04726b0fec3be97811fe93097fce107f1e8f0c4dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,087 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Spirit | 74c | 6,769$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.63 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 4,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…c6a6backed Nigma Galaxy | 0c | 3,281$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Nigma Galaxy | 13c | 1,899$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.09 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Nigma Galaxy | 18c | 1,172$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.41 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Nigma Galaxy | 15c | 1,100$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 897.37$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcc…5ae5backed Team Spirit | 79c | 621.69$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 393$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 371$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Team Spirit | 78c | 324.73$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Nigma Galaxy | 18c | 320$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Team Spirit | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…2262backed Team Spirit | 73c | 287.5$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 272.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 250.26$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0865…3d2cbacked Team Spirit | 79c | 230.57$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…f616backed Team Spirit | 77c | 221.23$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c92…01cabacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 201.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 199.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 156$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…c953backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 151.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 149.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…c4f1backed Team Spirit | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed Team Spirit | 75c | 133.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…307dbacked Team Spirit | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 130.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 126.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…946dbacked Team Spirit | 79c | 126.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 115.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf1…1509backed Team Spirit | 73c | 108.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Team Spirit | 76c | 103$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Team Spirit | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3964…66b2backed Team Spirit | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Team Spirit | 75c | 98.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…6ce1backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 93.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5c…2775backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 90.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc937…273bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 88.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 36.7%33 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed Team Spirit | 72c | 81.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…38e7backed Team Spirit | 76c | 72.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf242…9e61backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 70.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed Team Spirit | 77c | 65.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Team Spirit | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Team Spirit | 78c | 64.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 61.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Spirit | 71c | 59.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…cf64backed Team Spirit | 71c | 56.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…17e0backed Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Team Spirit | 74c | 47.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Team Spirit | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed Team Spirit | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Team Spirit | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…78d2backed Team Spirit | 77c | 35.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Spirit | 74c | 33.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x68e7…0169backed Team Spirit | 78c | 31.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Team Spirit | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Team Spirit | 69c | 17.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Team Spirit | 76c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.