Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2074da6b0cc0e6891dce3164fa1521a9a6573df5714651d76328b59b62788564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 308.95$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 64c | 170.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 166.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 157.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 154.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 149.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 36c | 112.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 109.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 107.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 97.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 94.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 64c | 81.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 78.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 77.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 65.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 59.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 56.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 70c | 53.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 52.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 52.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 50.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 49.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 35c | 48.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 73c | 44.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 44.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 65c | 38.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 37.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 58c | 33.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 33c | 30.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 33c | 30.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 30.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 28.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 70c | 25.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 68c | 21.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…0e9fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed No | 65c | 17.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.